Category Archives: Keyword Research

How to Calculate Profit and Traffic for Niche Website

These are calculations that will work with both small niche websites or larger authority type websites . I will give an example of a small niche website keyword, and then I will walk through the calculations of my new authority site.  Overall, I will be calculating the earnings based on Google Adsense; however, with some minor adjustments you should be able to calculate your earnings for any type of monetization strategy; including Amazon, Clickbank, CPA offers, or other methods.  The first thing you need to do is find a keyword that you are considering building a website based on.

Example Keyword and the Formula

Anyway, the primary information you need before you can start calculating is the Exact Match, Local volume Monthly searches and the Cost Per Click.  So, for my example, lets use the keyword “Water Pumps”.  This keyword gets 6,600 Local Exact match searches and has a CPC of $1.61.

I have gone over how to calculate earnings in detail in this post: Search Volume and CPC Criteria of a Winning Keyword.  But I wanted to discuss some deeper nuances that I skipped over in that post.  The formula that I used in my previous post to calculate how much earnings you will receive is simply this:

Earnings = Estimated Search Volume x Adsense CTR x Adsense CPC

However, the formula is actually more complicated than that because we need to first calculate the actual search volume coming to our website.  Then to calculate for our entire website, we need to figure out additional search volume received from other planned keywords AND unexpected long tail keywords.  We also need to jump through some hoops to figure out the Adsense CTR and the Adsense CPC.

So, the REAL formula to use is my updated formula shown here:

Estimated Earnings = (Keyword Search Volume x Google Position Factor) x  Visitor CTR x (Adwords Tool CPC x 30%) x Multiplier for Long Tail Keywords

How to Calculate Estimated Search Volume

The initial problem is that we don’t know exactly how much traffic to expect for our keyword.  We know that “Water Pumps” gets 6,600 searches each month, but we obviously can’t expect to get every last visitor for that keyword.  So, how much can we expect?  Again, I have covered this before, but here is a graph that shows a general breakdown of how much traffic the top 10 sites in Google based on positition can expect.  This is data provided by Aaron Wall at SEObook.com(originally from some AOL leaked data) to determine search volume:

So, if you are ranked #1 in Google you can expect to get approximately 42.13%.  In addition, I don’t really agree with the other positions.  This data is just based on the first website that a visitor clicks on.  So, yes, maybe only 11.90% of searchers click on result #2 for their very first click, but you and I both know that when we search for a keyword, we often click 2, 3, or even more of the results!  So, the actual % of people going to the lower ranked sites is actually MUCH greater.  In fact, I have not noticed a huge difference in traffic between being ranked 1, 2, or 3 for a keyword.  Obviously this can really depend on a number of factors.  I have seen this time and again with my niche websites – I get essentially the same amount of traffic being ranked in any of the top 3 positions.  I also see about the same for positions 4, 5, and 6 – lets say 20%.  Then for the bottom 7, 8, 9 and 10 its probably closer to 5 to 10% of the monthly search volume of the keyword.

So, if we rank #1, #2, or #3 for “Water Pumps”, we can expect about 2,781 visitors per month (42.13% x 6600) for that keyword.  If you think you can only rank at the bottom of the 1st page, you should only expect about 330 to 660 visitors per month.

 How to Calculate Adsense CTR

The Adsense CTR needs some explaining.  The CTR shown in your Adsense account is actually based on the number of Pageviews NOT visitors.  We have just calculated how many visitors we are expecting to our website – which is a completely different number from pageviews.  Honestly, there is no way to know the exact click through rate until the site is up, but I usually just use 10% of VISITORS.

So, if each visitor looks at 2 pages on our site, the actual CTR shown in our Adsense account would be 5% – make sense?  If each visitor looks at 3 pages, then if 10% of visitors clicked on an adsense ad, this would make our Adsense CTR 3.33%.  Hope that makes sense.  So, for ease of use, I just calculate that 5 to 10% of visitors will click an ad.  Obviously your CTR could be significantly lower or higher than you calculate here – this is just a rough estimate.

So continuing on with our “Water Pumps” example, if we rank #1 we are expecting 2,781 visitors for that keyword.  We are then estimating that 10% of those visitors will click an Adsense ad – or 278 clicks per month.  Sweet we are getting close here!  Now we just need to figure out how much we are getting paid per click.

How to Calculate the Adsense CPC

The Google Adwords Keyword Tool shows the CPC based on how much advertisers are willing to pay to be listed on Google.com.  Advertisers will pay less to be listed on your website.  I usually use a factor of around 30%.  So, for our keyword, “Water Pumps” with a CPC of $1.61; I would estimate closer to getting paid $0.48 per click.  Also, this number could fluctuate heavily as advertisers stop bidding on this keyword, new advertisers enter the market, or they change their bids for other reasons.

You can also check out Google’s new Contextual Targeting Tool to get an idea of CPC bids on the content network.  The tool is in beta and I don’t find it very reliable at this point.  I have punched in several keywords from my own websites and this tool was still overstating the CPC by quite a bit on most of them.  I just now punched in a couple of keywords that only pay me about $0.20 to $0.30 per click – and the contextual targeting is still listing the CPC of about $1.20 or so.  I don’t use the contextual targeting tool and don’t really put any weight into it, but I just wanted to point it out – who knows – it could get more accurate down the road.

So, after my long winded explanations, we can finally calculate the estimated earnings for the keyword “Water Pumps”.  We figured that we could expect around 278 clicks per month with an actual payout of about $0.48 per click – that gives us: $133.44.  So, if we rank in the top 3 spots of Google, we can expect to make around $133.44 for this keyword.

Calculating for Long Tail Keywords

You also have to realize that you are likely to get more traffic for a niche website than from just your primary keyword.  You will get long tail keywords traffic!  For a small niche website this might only be 10 or 20% additional traffic to your site although it could be much more. Some of my niche sites get up to 50% of their traffic from long tail keywords.  Some get much less – so unfortunately, none of this is an exact science! However, for a larger authority website, you should be able to expect MUCH more traffic based on those long tail keywords.

So, if we expect to get 20% more traffic from other keywords in our “Water Pumps” example, then we would take $133.44 x 1.20; which is $160.13.  So, if we get 20% additional traffic from long tail keywords, we can expect our niche website on “Water Pumps” to make about $160.13 per month!  This calculation takes a long time to explain, but in practice takes less than 30 seconds to figure out for each keyword!

If we were adding lots of articles we could obviously double or triple the earnings that the “water pumps” niche website is bringing in.

Video Explanation of this Formula

When I got to this point in my blog post, I started thinking about how confusing this might be for some people.  So, I decided to make a quick video of me walking through the “Water Pumps” example.  This is simply meant to help clarify what I am trying to say.  Hopefully it helps!

 

 

My Calculations for My Authority Site

Now that you understand (hopefully :) ) my thinking behind how to project earnings for a site.  So again, I will be using this formula.  But this time I will essentially be doing it twice – once for my primary keyword, and once for my long tail keywords.  I will do it twice simply because I plan to have a massive amount of content so it makes sense to calculate the long tail keywords separately.

Estimated Earnings = (Keyword Search Volume x Google Position Factor) x  Visitor CTR x (Adwords Tool CPC x 30%) x Multiplier for Long Tail Keywords

First, my primary keyword gets approximately 14,800 searches per month.  It has a CPC of $8.04.  I am hoping to rank in the top 3 of course, but lets just calculate the projections based on getting to the middle of the page – or a Google Position factor of 20% as discussed above for middle of the front page search results.

So, now I am going to quickly use the above formula.

14,800 x 20% = 2960

Visitor CTR estimated at 10% – So, 2960 visitors x 10% CTR = 296 clicks per month

The CPC is $8.04 – So, 8.04 x 30% = $2.41 . I usually cap my expected per click earnings at $1.  Yes, you can earn more, but it would be extremely rare to average $2.41 per click.  So, I will implement my cap of an expected CPC at $1 to stay on the conservative side.

So, that gives me a projected earnings of $296 per month just for that keyword.

However, the long tail keywords will bring in MUCH more traffic.  I expect to create 200 pages of content all targeting a new keyword that gets between 200 to 500 searches per month.  So, lets take an average search volume of 350 searches per month on those long tails.

So, 350 x 200 articles = 70,000.  If I rank the middle of the road, that’s 20% of that, or 14,000 visitors.  However, I also expect ADDITIONAL long tail traffic on keywords that I wasn’t targeting.  In fact, I expect to receive just as much traffic from these untargeted keywords as I do from my targeted keywords.  So, that would be 28,000 visitors per month if I double the traffic.

So, 28,000 x 10% CTR = 2,800 clicks.  At $1 average per click, that’s $2,800 earnings per month from long tail traffic.  So, $296 from my primary keyword and $2,800 from long tail traffic is $3,096 estimated earnings per month.  And honestly I think this is a VERY low estimate.  If I didn’t cap my earnings at $1 per click and instead used the $2.41 per click – I am looking at a $6,192 per month website.  And obviously it could fluctuate largely up or down based on traffic and ranking position.  If I was ranking at the top of Google, we could double the traffic estimate to 43% – which would give me a number over $12,000 per month.

Anyway, I think its better to stay on the conservative side and estimate the site has good potential to earn about $3,000 per month.  I know it has potential to do more than that, but this lower $3k is a good estimate of what I should be looking for.

As you can see, this is not an exact science – not even close.  There are just too many unknowns to be able to reliably predict how much a website is going to make you before you even built it.  However, these calculations CAN give you a ballpark figure, and I think that’s important.  You need to know if you are looking at earning a potential $30 a month or a potential $3,000 per month.

So, I hope that my formula and calculation examples made sense!  I was somehow able to ramble on for over 2,000 words here – all just to show a relatively simple calculation.

My Keyword Research Strategy

In my whole seo  experience i have applied several keyword research method and learned best practice which i will describe through this post so that u can get the idea of my work process.I also described  the overview of keyword research method and my own thought.

So What is  Keyword Research and Why

I am sure all of know better from me.In Briefly i have to say,finding the most profitable  and most importantly low competitive  niche from millions of  seed keyword that suits your business.

In my point of view the main objective of keyword research is mainly three.I will be elaborating main purpose and process through out the post.

  • Target market and Traffic
  • Profit Calculation
  •  Competition Analysis

Long tail keywords for your Niche

Long tail keywords are the longer, more specific keywords that are less common and tends to get traffic that make high conversion.Moreover long tail also less competitive and actual customer driven.For your niche its important to figure out most profitable keyword and that’s where my expertise lies.

Target market and Traffic

You cant target the whole big term like -“android” because its not specific and very broad term.Or you cant also select ‘android apps for alien’ that’s not making sense at all.What i am trying to say is we should select target market which contains following ability.

  1. Your target market should want and need your product or service today and tomorrow
  2. Your target market must have the ability to provide money for you
  3. Your target market should be achievable ,easy accessible and low competitive
  4. Your target market should achievable by a time.frame
  5. Your target market should meet your profit criteria.

Profit Calculation

This part is really valuable part when we are talking about  any investment or seo activity; whether my risky initiative can give me smart amount of gain.Fortunately,I have learned and successfully applied a calculation for profit assumption.This goes below;

Situation One:For instance you are planing for some niche site that is mainly for adsense.Some info You might know;

  • Top 1st position will get 62% CTR, 
  • Average CTR for adsense may nim 7- 10 %  even more Appr.
  • Google pays average 60% of CPC

Strategy One:Estimating Keyword Income

To find do the math following

1) Multiply the Estimated Avg CPC by .60– We are presuming Google pays average 60% of CPC

2) Then multiply this amount by the monthly search volume (exact)

3) Multiply the amount by .62 (Top 1st position will get 62% CTR, )

4) Finally we multiply the running figure by .07 (Average CTR for adsense may nim 7- 10 %  even )

Strategy two:Find Search Volume (SV) That meets Profit criteria 

Here we have to know also previous data and then do following.

First,Search Volume x CTR=SV x 62%

Secondly,SV x62% multiply CTR of visitor =Google paying CPC

SV x62%x7%=60

Now SV=? (find it by calculating and you will find how many SV you will need)

Situation Two: If you are using actual products or affiliate network this principle is fundamental to figure out the basic info.I guess this can be workout for you also.

Brainstorm for keyword

Suppose you have selected your target market and its time to move on for picking keyword.Wait one sec I guess most of the entrepreneur makes mistake by jumping away from brainstorm.

If you own a business for selling products or providing service than thinks it as consumer,What people will use as search on Google.Here is some idea to gather keyword suggestion and brainstorm.

  1. I Use my sense.Look around myself,shopping list,magazine,or blog about my niche
  2. Search it to Google  and follow related result.Use related search or * parameter.
  3. http://ubersuggest.org/ is another great tools that i found useful for gathering random keyword suggestion..
  4. Modifying keyword with different types of keyword action word and other category.Like-‘ buy android apps for alien’ or  ‘summer android apps for alien’ (seasonal) and many others.
  5. I sometimes use Google trend and instant.http://www.google.com/trends/hottrends gives me idea whats going on around hot.
  6. http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers and http://listings.ebay.com/  also gives thousand of seed keyword idea and people are actually buying.You can use it for your target market also.
  7. https://adwords.google.com/o/KeywordTool I am big fan of it personally.It will provide most of required info and valuable keyword information by filtering.
  8. http://www.seocentro.com/tools/search-engines/keyword-position.html  also gives some useful sugestion according to your search

Now you need to save all keyword suggestion on word document and save it for  further use.

Filtering Keyword 

After collecting all the suggested keyword its time filter them.Drooping weak one putting potential one is main purpose of filtering.You have to consider these things for filtering keyword.

  1. Satisfactory number of searcher,It depends upon business size and capability.Very low serch volume must have to avoid because it will not be profitable.
  2. For niche site 2000 exact match is minimum value many internet marketing professional  recommended.I described all about niche site strategy on another post.
  3. High competitive keyword should be avoided because it will difficult  for ranking.

For doing i usally use https://adwords.google.com/o/KeywordTool because its easy to use.Now copy these keyword suggestion and paste some to keyword tools box.Now for filtering some step have to take that is following.

  1. Select the exact instead of broad.It will let you know exact monthly search volume.
  2. Suppose you want to avoid low search global under 2000 ,local 1500 ,approximate cpc under $1 and you want high competitive keyword and local region at US.Then
  3. Go to advance option and filter and and set all them.Here is the screen shot of it.Now all set up and press search button to go.
  4. Google adward on use

    screen shot of adword

  5. Finally You will get all the keyword that meets your requirement and all are profitable, demanding as well.You can sort column.
  6. Now mark them all and save as CSV file.You can delete or add column  before download.Now need to move next step.

 Competition Analysis

As a seo professional ,I hardly believe that most of the small and medium business fail for this.I wrote a complete guide line and my strategy about competitior anlaysis over here.

Why competitor analysis is important

Some important issue for doing competitor analysis.

  1. Letting you know competitors strength and weakness.
  2. Is is possible to demote them and grab the 1st ranking
  3. How much time it will take
  4. Spy on them and their activity.
  5. How much effort  it will take to compete with them.

Factors of competitor analysis

I figured out some vital issue here and described lot more about this here. Understanding how difficult it is to rank in the top 10 of Google for your chosen keyword is probably the most important skill for keyword analysis. Luckily, this skill I acquired with my experience, serious study, and effort.For some reason, people still type their keyword into Google and look at the number of competing pages to judge how difficult a keyword is to rank for.  This is ridiculous!I gave one example of my work so that you can understand how analyze competitor.

my competitor analysis sample

my competitor analysis sample

  1. Relevant Content.As we all know content is king.So main factor that will  clarify your primary possibly.
  2. Optimized Title Competition- Is the keyword used in the title and well optimized?
  3. Page and Site Links. How many links are there to the ranking PAGE and ROOT domain?
  4. Authority Site and Links. Are there .edu, .gov, DMOZ, or Yahoo Directory links?
  5. Google Page Rank. What is the Google PR?
  6. Using Keyword Root Domain or URL? Is the ranking page a root domain or a URL ?
  7. EMD. Are the site is Exact match domain.
  8. Site Age. How old the site is?
  9. Type of site. Is the ranking page a weak type of site like: article directories, forums, Yahoo Answers, other Q&A sites, social sites, or other user generated type sites?
  10. Existing sites.Site which is not ranking well on top 10 yet; i mean ongoing project to spy.